Election Map Analysis:Obama vs. Romney

Election Map Analysis by Y.I. Wearblack

Nine months out from a Presidential election is way too early to make credible predictions, but since it now appears that Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee, it isn’t too early to lay out the range of possibilities in order to track the progress of the campaigns. Placing a state in one candidate’s column or the other depends on the strategy and execution of the two campaigns, the course of events and the debates. So let’s begin by carving up the map, making certain underlying assumptions. First, assume that the geopolitical situation remains static: no confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz; the EU survives its financial crisis; and no major unrest in the rest of planet earth. Also, assume that we are not hit with an exogenous event like a major earthquake, hurricane or other natural disaster and that the stock market doesn’t crash and the unemployment rate remains stable. Based on past history and demographics we can color states such as New York blue and Nebraska red.

States securely in Obama’s column: New York 29; Connecticut 7; Rhode Island 4; Massachusetts 11; Vermont 3; New Jersey 14; Delaware 3; Maryland 10; DC 3;  Illinois 20; Minnesota 10; Wisconsin 10; Michigan 16; Pennsylvania 20; Washington 12; Oregon 7; California 55; Colorado 9; New Mexico 5; Nevada 6; Hawaii 4

Total 258

States securely in Romney’s column: Indiana 11; Kentucky 8; West Virginia 5; Tennessee 11; South Carolina 9; Georgia 16; Alabama 9; Mississippi 6; Louisiana 8; Arkansas 6; Texas 38; Oklahoma 7; Kansas 6; Nebraska 5; South Dakota 3; North Dakota 3; Montana 3; Wyoming 3; Arizona 11; Utah 6; Idaho 4; Alaska 3; New Hampshire 4; Maine 4; Iowa 6

Total 195

Toss ups; Virginia 13, North Carolina 15, Florida 29; Ohio 18; Missouri 10

Total 85


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