Our picks in the Iowa caucus

The Right by Dwight Cameron

As I made clear in an earlier post, Newt is my man. I personally do not trust Mitt, although I would vote for him against Obama. Also, in another post I mentioned that I like most of Paul’s platform, but disagree on his foreign policy. That being said, who will the Iowa caucus on January 3^rd? 

It is apparent from the latest CNN/Time/ORC poll that Newt is slipping; he is now behind a surging Rick Santorum in fourth place. Romney is a few points ahead of Paul who is several points ahead of Santorum. Don’t ask me why or what the Iowans are thinking, but Santorum has gathered a steam roller of momentum over the last week, increasing his standings in the polls from single digits to 16 percent.

Apparently, the evangelical block has coalesced around the self-proclaimed evangelical Rick Santorum who spent time hunting with the right people the day after Christmas (www.npr.org has a great pic of Rick in his orange hunting gear) while Bachmann and Perry were laboriously scouring the countryside. Santorum was hunting pheasants with conservative congressman Steve King who has not yet officially endorsed him, but he did get the endorsement of a prominent Christian conservative, Bob Vander Plaats, CEO of the Family Leader an Iowa social conservative organization.

The evangelicals in Iowa wield the power. If they vote as a block rather than splinter their vote among the six candidates, and they decide to support Santorum, then he can pull the upset that he has been counting on. Rick Santorum has practically been living in Iowa for weeks now, hoping that he can do what Mike Huckabee did four years ago—win it all. My prediction is that when it comes down to it, Iowans will shy away from both front runners, Romney and Paul, for various reasons. 

The momentum that Rick Santorum has gathered over the last week can and will propel him to the victory that his campaign so desperately needs.

The Left by Y.I. Wearblack

According to Realclearpolitics.com the average of the latest polls, in Iowa, show Ron Paul in the lead but within the margin of error. A week is an eternity in politics so we cannot rule out an unexpected outcome, but after this exhaustive process it isn’t likely. 

I think we can happily wave goodbye to Michelle Bachman. She is polling at 8.7 percent; she is low on cash and will not be able to mount a last minute advertising blitz that would put her in contention. On paper, she presents the best candidacy: the best political arguments, best presentation of them and the greatest congruency to the Iowan constituency. She loses on the basis of her overbearing personality, her hideous voice and harsh nature. In short, she is like the loud-mouthed neighbor most people don’t like. 

Rick Santorum who is polling slightly lower loses for similar reasons. He isn’t quite as repulsive but also lacks charisma; he is bland, uninspiring and off track on foreign policy as many people feel he is most likely to get us into another war. 

Gingrich is slaughtered by his past. There is simply too much baggage for him to overcome, especially in Iowa. Even if he raises the money it won’t matter. He is perceived as a mean-spirited pragmatist posing as an idealist that would say or do anything to promote his media empire. 

I am not going to declare Huntsman toast, although a non-factor in Iowa, he could make a surprising comeback in New Hampshire. 

Perry is currently at 12 percent in the Iowa polls, ahead of Bachman and Santorum and if he performs to that number he will survive to fight another day but it is extremely doubtful he can pull an upset, splitting the evangelical vote with Bachmann and Santorum. Perry can bank on getting the combined vote of Bachmann and Santorum once they are gone which should be soon after the polls close on January 3, 2012. 

That leaves Romney and Paul to fight it out in the cornfields of Iowa. Despite all of his protestations to the contrary, Romney’s flip-flopping has hurt him. Although he has made the political calculation that he can overcome his flip-flopping, his personality is so disingenuous it feeds into the perception that he is a con-man running to satisfy his ego. In any case, his formula has not moved the needle substantially, and the money he spent debunking Newt has benefitted Paul in Iowa. 

However, a Paul victory is a Romney victory so the money was well spent. Paul is perceived as sincere, intelligent and capable. He also has captured the anti-war sentiment that Santorum and Bachmann miscalculated. So, Ron Paul will win the Iowa caucus, and that and two dollars and fifty cents will get you a ride on the New York City subway and very little else.

The Center by Jerry Morgan

Is Iowa up for grabs? Will there be a favorite among the ever so important evangelical right as was the case 4 years ago when Mike Huckabee won a resounding victory, or is the evangelical block fractured among the likes of Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum?  

Also vying for this strong voting block is Dr. Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich. Yes, there are more than a few in the Bible Belt who are willing to forgive the latter, a self-confessed sinner for his past transgressions and believe the former, an accused bigot when he says he knows not who wrote horrible platitudes about blacks and Jews in his newsletters. 

The Republican right is confused with as many as 66 percent of Iowans capable of either changing their minds or undecided according to a recent CBS news article.

So the latest Rasmussen poll, which clearly shows Mitt Romney pulling away from Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich cannot be trusted as indicative of anything more than capturing the moment. But the voters are not voting this moment. In fact, they have a whole week to decide if they can really vote for a Morman who used to be pro-choice and used to be pro-Gay and used to be a governor from the liberal state of Massachusetts, the architect for ObamaCare. They are being inundated with ad after ad showing the new Mitt who is taking shots at the old Newt.

The question for Iowans comes down to who to believe: the new Mitt, the new Newt, the old and new but not a bigot Paul, or none of the above. My guess is many of the evangelicals will reject all three front runners on moral and religious grounds and split their vote among Bachmann, Perry and Santorum. I do indeed feel sorry for the GOP electorate in Iowa for their dilemma when on January 3, 2012 they must caucus for the candidate to represent their party in the Presidential race against the incumbent Barack Obama. 


I know how I would cast my vote if I were one of them and I will share my secret with you. I would vote my conscience for Michele Bachmann, the consistent conservative, the true Iowan in the race and that is my long-shot prediction. Michele Bachmann, a shocking winner in Iowa.